In many countries revolutions and uprisings have occurred .There are many reasons for this and scholars have always debated about what causes revolutions or uprisings. The civil unrest in Chitungwiza was seen by some observers as the beginning of a revolution in Zimbabwe.
By Malvern Mkudu
This is so because many people have suffered under the government of Robert Mugabe. The economy is in bad shape and there is widespread police brutality either from the Zimbabwe Republic Police or municipal police. These two law enforcement arms have virtually turned themselves into revenue collection agents for the state and for themselves. The ways they go about it is often ruthless, dishonest and brutal and this has angered some citizens.
These high levies and taxes were at the centre of the Chitungwiza skirmishes. This has led excited Zimbabweans to think that finally Zimbabweans will rise up against what they see as bad governance under Mugabe. For many the Chitungwiza incident represented the start of that rebellion. However in 2014 we also saw Vapostori attacking police and many didn’t see this act of defiance as the start of an uprising.
I don’t think there is anything ‘revolutionary’ about the Chitungwiza incident but it comes at a time the Mugabe government is perhaps at its weakest since 2008. In 2007-2008 the state had literally broken down only for the opposition to rescue ZANU PF by agreeing to get into a government of national unity.
There are internal party disagreements about who will succeed Mugabe. Mugabe’s advanced age has created political opportunity for those seeking to succeed him. His government is broke often delaying in paying salaries to civil servants. The jostling for positioning has created a chink in the states armour especially after Mugabe admitted that state security apparatus was meddling in the party succession politics. The division has therefore created a degree of weakness within the state.
‘Secondly the government’s failure to pay its workers indicates the dwindling financial resources at its disposal. Already the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority has missed revenue targets while the government also has a huge budget deficit. The desperation for money has been exposed by Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa’s many compromises with the IMF and World Bank.
Yet despite all these weaknesses within the state, a ‘revolution’ will not happen. Firstly the opposition which is supposed to identify this political opportunity is disorganised but more importantly the opposition agrees with the ruling party on many policy issues. One could just look at opposition parties’ policy on water meters to understand this or how the opposition led MDC councils have unleashed police on vendors or destroyed people’s homes.
The political elite have consensus on policy matters only disagreeing on who must be implementing the policies. They are all anti- poor. Such opposition parties cannot and should not be expected to harness the discontent of the masses and turn it into a successful uprising against the sitting government.
Secondly the Chitungwiza disturbances should not be overrated. They were not about political values but rather a disagreement over money. The combi operators have no problem with the actions of the law enforcement but their issue is that the money required is exorbitant. So in their eyes and understanding, they should pay something but not pay themselves out of business.
Combi operators and many other business people operate on the benevolence of the government. Their operations are often illegal and can be shut down any time if the government invokes the rule book. So the Chitungwiza disturbances must not be misread as the beginning of a revolution but rather a small mishap that has since been rectified. In fact to demonstrate that it was unwise to challenge the authorities, the Harare Municipality responded by impounding 100 illegal taxis the next day. This was a pre-emptive strike by the government to show those that may have been harboring intentions of rebellion that there would be consequences. Their businesses and hence their livelihoods would pay the price for this misguided excitement.
The economic cake is becoming smaller as the economy nose dives. There is less to collect and the government’s determination to collect more at a time when there is nothing to collect provoked this resistance.
These disturbances have exposed growing discontent within the country as the economy continues to crumble. They will put pressure on Mugabe’s leadership. Mugabe either has to turn things around or face internal rebellion from people whose economic interests are now being harmed by his inept leadership.
The defiance by Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa for example not to pay bonuses and also his reforms to try and attract FDI shows that there are those within the government who no longer have faith in Mugabe’s methods of resuscitating the economy. The situation is dire.
While the ruling elite remain united and with consensus on how the country should be governed, the growing citizen unrest will make them realise that all of them are under threat if Mugabe continues to run the country this way. Mugabe has now become a liability to the well being of the state and hence the well being of the ruling elite who depend on the state to further their economic interests.
The Chitungwiza incident is not an indicator of an impending revolution but certainly indicates suffering economic interests of those operating their business on the benevolence of the state. If Mugabe fails to improve the economy, these are the same people who will agitate for his removal.
Source: www.zimsentinel.com
Photo credit: www.herald.co.zw
