A recent survey by Ghanaian based pan African research network released by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) has shown a significant decline in support for opposition Citizens Coalition for Change leader Nelson Chamisa while President Emmerson Mnangagwa has experienced an increase in popularity.
According to the survey, if presidential elections were to take place immediately after the study, Chamisa would lose to Mnangagwa.
“If presidential elections were to be held a day after the survey, the CCC leader Nelson Chamisa would lose to the ZANU PF leader Emmerson Mnangagwa. The survey signals that 27 % of respondents would vote for Chamisa against 35% for Mnangagwa. This means that the CCC leader’s support base has decreased by 6 % since June 2022. Also of significance is that Chamisa’s vote used to be far ahead of his party but the gap has closed to 1%.
“The survey shows that Mnangagwa’s support base has increased by 5% since June 2022. This turns the tide because there has been a systematic pattern in the decline of Mnangagwa’s vote since he took over from Mugabe in a military coup. At least 38 % of surveyed citizens expressed intentions to vote for him in 2017 and by June 2022 this had dramatically gone down to 30%,” the survey revealed
The survey also highlights a significant proportion of respondents who declined to disclose their preferences for the parliamentary and presidential elections.
“A significant number of respondents, 26% and 27%, refused to reveal their preferences for the parliamentary and presidential elections respectively. A majority of respondents (65%) say the country is going in the wrong direction.
“A large majority (69%) say the economy is bad and 62% say the living conditions are bad and this constitutes an equal proportion from both the urban and rural areas. An overwhelming majority (85%) say the government has performed badly in addressing key issues such as unemployment, corruption, the economy and managing the economy,” said MPOI
These findings have led political analyst Dr. Philani Zamchiya to caution against assuming that widespread dissatisfaction with the government will automatically translate into votes for the opposition.
“The fact that 65% in the survey say the country is going the wrong direction, 69% say the economy is bad, 62% say living conditions are bad and 85% say the government has performed badly in tackling unemployment, corruption and managing the economy does not by definition translate to support or votes for CCC or the opposition.
“Voters are most likely to vote with their feet and choose the exit option where the opposition is vocal against the incumbent but has no vision, no ideology, no constitution, no structures, no ideas, no policies, no leadership and thus has nothing to show for what it actually stands for beyond what it claims to oppose or to be against. It’s a truism in electoral politics that where voters vote with their feet and go for the exit option in their numbers, the advantage necessarily falls on the incumbents!” said Dr. Zamchiya
